2020 Q2 Market Report for North Central NJ: Somerset, Hunterdon, Morris, Essex and Union Counties

By Turpin Real Estate - July 17, 2020

As we wind our way through the social, political and economic maze of this pandemic, I am pleased to report that real estate sales in our region are brisk. Much of the activity we are seeing now is a delayed spring market that had been put on ice when the state shut down in March. Renewed interest from buyers living in New York City and the surrounding urban centers is noteworthy, though it is probably far less pronounced than the news media would have us believe. We find that many who have left the city are renting, rather than buying, though we expect them to turn into buyers as they learn how wonderful our region is! While the pandemic continues to remind us that we cannot know what tomorrow will bring, overall
there is currently a great deal to be positive about in our local real estate market.

County-Level Performance Versus 2019
As has become our practice since the shutdown began, we will start with our “Special Edition” results, which examine the Covid effect at the county level using year-over-year performance for each month, beginning in January 2020. County-level data provides a larger pool of transactions, thus smoothing out anomalies that result from the smaller, town-level data sets elsewhere in the report. This report also measures Contracts Pended, which, in combination with Homes for Sale data (current inventory), creates a more current view into our market.

During the month of June, Somerset, Morris, and the portions of Essex and Union that we track in our Special Edition all showed incredible resilience. Each posted strong improvement in contracts pended versus June 2019, with Morris leading the pack (+55%). During this same timeframe, contracts pended in Hunterdon County were down 25%, a decrease that is not surprising, given a spike earlier in the year that yielded 67% more homes sold this June than were in 2019. In all areas covered by our special report, new listings declined sharply, while median prices either held steady or increased. Early signs of price stability are encouraging, though our third quarter report will be a more accurate measure of Covid’s effect on real
estate prices, predicated as they are on contracts signed 45-60+ days prior.

Second Quarter Results at the Town Level
Looking at individual towns in our region during the second quarter, declines of 30-40% in home sales as compared to 2019 are not uncommon. This is fallout from diminished contract activity that occurred in late March and early April as a result of the Covid shutdown. Fortunately, the tremendous rebound we are now experiencing in contract activity suggests that towns like Chatham Township and Borough will make up any lost ground in the coming months.

Despite strong headwinds, some towns still managed to improve over their 2019 performance during the second quarter. For example, Bernardsville saw a 41% increase in the number of homes sold spurred by a strong showing in the $1-2 million segment. Harding Township experienced a nice uptick in sales during the second quarter and is now 41% ahead of last year at this time. Madison saw a big increase in sales under $1 million (+51%) and is also well ahead of its 2019 performance year-to-date. Mendham Township managed to build on a strong first-quarter performance to end the second quarter 17% ahead of 2019. In a trend that reinforces the return of the east-to-west migration pattern, many Hunterdon county towns, like Tewksbury, Clinton Town, Clinton Township and Califon performed very well and are in positive territory for the year.

Overall, we are pleased to see how the real estate market has adjusted to accommodate new modes of operation, enabling buyers, sellers and agents to efficiently share information and transact business in the midst of this pandemic. We are always available to answer any question you may have about your particular real estate situation, and I would encourage you to reach out to your Turpin agent for insights into the market regardless of whether you plan a move or not. 2020 marks our firm’s 60th year in business, and we have never been more proud to represent the people, properties and lifestyle that make up these special communities we call home.

See the data